Regional Trends Webinar Recap

Today I had the chance to participate in another installment of the IPC Executive Webcast Series, “An International Overview of the Electronics Industry: The Outlook for Regional Trends in EMS, PCB and Electronics Systems’” presented by Phil Plonski of Prismark Partners, LLC.

The presentation was packed with information, stats, trends and analysis about the entire global supply chain.

Here are 10 highlights from the webinar that provide a sampling of what’s going on in the industry. First, a notable quote from Plonski: “There’s no doubt we are going to recover, but all segments are going to do it differently.”

1. All industry segments and all geographies are expected to decline in 2009. However, they expect the decline will conclude by the end of 2009 and are expecting “positive, but not exciting numbers in 2010, because of more consumer confidence,” Plonski says.
2. The semiconductor market finished 2008 with a 2.8% decline. Revenues grew modestly during most of 2008, but dropped dramatically in the fourth quarter. Prismark’s forecast is for a further 23% in revenue terms.
3. Despite forecasted improvements in semiconductor quarterly shipments in 2009, “We’re a long way from where we were [before the 2008],” Plonksi says.
4. Printed circuit board revenues are expected to decline by more than 16% in 2009. PCB production isn’t likely to recover to 2008 levels until 2012.
5. After the 2000-2001 dot com bubble burst, it took the printed circuit industry just over six years to fully recover.
6. From 1995 to 2000, the historical growth rate of the global printed circuit industry was 10.7%. Prismark forecasts the average growth rate for 2008 to 2013 is 3.6% per year.
7. The strongest segments before the downturn will the the strongest in recovery, as well, Plonski says.
8. The industry has experienced a “bullwhip” effect. “The furthest organizations from end demand and those with the largest lead time feel the most pain.”
9. Post-2008, the end-user is focusing more on “web-managed functions” and less on “expensive portability.”
10. The consumer market was hit hard by a few factors, according to Prismark: the reduction in consumer liquidity and the increasing maturity of consumer electronic devices.

To hear more insights from your industry peers, check out the last three webinars in the series: Growing Customer Partnerships in the Current Economy (June 25), You and the Stimulus Package: How the electronics industry will benefit from tax incentives and manufacturing recovery provisions (June 30) and The Economic Prognosis for the Electronics Industry: A View from Wall Street (July 7). You can find all of the details by visiting the IPC Executive Webcast Series page.

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